Final 2011 Emmy Winner Predictions

Well Emmy weekend is upon us as the Main Ceremony airs this Sunday.  You can check out my full predictions here (along with what I predicted for last week's Creative Arts Emmys).  Anyways here is one last rundown of what I think will happen on Sunday.

I think the big category winners will end up being Mad Men (Drama), Modern Family (Comedy), Mildred Pierce (Miniseries/Movie), The Daily Show (Variety Series) and The Amazing Race (Reality-Competition).  However, for the first time in a long time, none of the programs are locked in for the win.  It seems like a lot of the categories are still up in the air.  To add even more confusion to the mix, the Emmys always through a major upset or two that no one saw coming at the audience.  Last year it was Dexter beating Lost's finale for Drama Directing and Archie Panjabi beating Christina Hendricks for Best Drama Supporting Actress.

The only competition to Mad Men achieving a four-peat in best Drama Series is Boardwalk Empire, but Boardwalk Empire is some major competition.  Empire won 7 Emmys last weekend, leaving it 3 short of setting the wins record for the series.  The Emmy voters clearly love Empire, but I think the like Mad Men a bit more (Mad Men also has better tapes if the voters actually decide to look at them).  Some of the last minute changes I made in the drama categories include choosing Julianna Margulies for Best Lead Actress (when there is too much competition in a category, the frontrunner usually wins it) and choosing Josh Charles for Best Supporting Actor (in a close category, a good tape may be the difference and Charles apparently has a very good tape).

Modern Family got blanked at last week's Creative Arts Emmys.  This is somewhat of a surprise and could mean some weakness in the support for this frontrunner from the Academy.  However, the only other Best Comedy Series nominee to win anything was Glee (for Best Casting and Best Guest Actress).  Glee is obviously not as respected as Modern Family in the industry so I think an upset by that show seems very unlikely.  Some of the last minute changes I made in the Comedy categories include choosing Jane Lynch for Best Supporting Actress (same reasoning for why I chose Margulies) and choosing How I Met Your Mother for Best Directing (after the other contenders in this category, 30 Rock and Modern Family, were blanked at the Creative Arts Emmys and How I Met Your Mother won for editing, an upset by this show in this category looks likely).

After The Kennedys surprisingly matched Mildred Pierce's awards tally last weekend (both had 3), Mildred Pierce's frontrunner status for Miniseries/TV Movie started to look shaky.  However, it's biggest threat doesn't come from The Kennedys, but in the shape of Downton Abbey.  Obviously, Pierce isn't the big Emmy behemoth we thought it would be, but I still think it has too much pedigree to be beaten.  Some of the last minute changes I made in the TV Movie/Miniseries categories include choosing Tom Wilkinson in Best Supporting Actor (because Wilkinson is a very respected actor and it turns out the Emmys actually like The Kennedys) and choosing Downton Abbey for Best Writing (Todd Haynes maybe too much of a film guy to win for both directing and writing so this is just a hunch on my part).

For the final two big categories (Best Variety Series and Reality-Competition) there are no clear frontrunners, so I am going with the longtime favorite in each category (The Daily Show and The Amazing Race).

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