Here are my final Oscar predictions. It seems this year is a lot more open in the acting categories than last year, and if you remember last year there was the shocking nomination for Maggie Gyllenhaal. So you should expect to see at least one surprise in the acting fields tomorrow. The Best Picture race is a little more closed than last year though. Last year there was 1 spot open with many films in contention (that spot eventually went to The Blind Side). This year there are only 11 films vying for 10 spots.
Best Picture
-127 Hours
-Black Swan
-The Fighter
-Inception
-The Kids Are All Right
-The King’s Speech
-The Social Network
-Toy Story 3
-True Grit
-Winter’s Bone
I am sticking with 127 Hours and Winter’s Bone in the final 2 slots. The Town seems too much like a lesser film then the other two. What I mean by this is that the other 2 films said more within them and Oscar loves message films.
Best Director
-Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
-Ethan Coen & Joel Coen, True Grit
-David Fincher, The Social Network
-Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
-Christopher Nolan, Inception
I’m sticking with my guns here and using the thinking that O. Russell still isn’t well liked in Hollywood which would allow the Coens to sneak in and grab the final slot.
Best Lead Actor
-Jeff Bridges, True Grit
-Robert Duvall, Get Low
-Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
-Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
-James Franco, 127 Hours
Despite a late challenge by Javier Bardem, the SAG lineup should show up again for the Oscars.
Best Lead Actress
-Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
-Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
-Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
-Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
-Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Bening, Kidman, Lawrence and Portman are locks, but that final slot could go to anyone. I’m betting that the Oscars follows BAFTA’s lead and nominates Bening’s co-star Julianne Moore. Hailee Steinfeld probably would have scored a nomination here if they campaigned her lead from the start. I’m guessing now that vote confusion over category placement will cost her a nomination.
Best Supporting Actor
-Christian Bale, The Fighter
-Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
-Jeremy Renner, The Town
-Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
-Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
Bale, Ruffalo and Rush seem like locks and Renner seems in good shape (However, there is always the chance that the late Pete Postlethwaite gets enough votes to cause a split vote between the two and they cancel each other out). For the final spot I am assuming Garfield gets in on The Social Network’s coattails.
Best Supporting Actress
-Amy Adams, The Fighter
-Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
-Mila Kunis, Black Swan
-Melissa Leo, The Fighter
-Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
This is by far the most wide open of the big 8 categories. Adams, Carter and Leo are the only locks. I already explained why I think Hailee Steinfeld will miss out here (and in lead) and I think the same reasoning will cost Lesley Manville a nomination. Jacki Weaver seems the most safe for one of the two nominations as Mila Kunis may have a split vote situation with co-star Barbara Hershey.
Best Adapted Screenplay
-127 Hours
-The Social Network
-Toy Story 3
-True Grit
-Winter’s Bone
I doubt The Ghost Writer will surprise here due to lack of recognition on the precursor circuit (with the exception of a USC scripter nomination which holds no similarities in voting body with the Oscars). Considering I am counting on The Town missing out in picture I really don’t think it will make it here and that leaves the 5 I am predicting left.
Best Original Screenplay
-Black Swan
-The Fighter
-Inception
-The Kids Are All Right
-The King’s Speech
The last 2 spots (The Fighter and Black Swan) are up for grabs but considering those 2 films are best picture contenders I think they will make it.
Best Original Score
-127 Hours
-Alice in Wonderland
-The King’s Speech
-Inception
-The Social Network
The King’s Speech, Inception and The Social Network are the only 2 locks here. How to Train Your Dragon and Never Let Me Go could definitely make it in here.
Best Original Song
-“I See the Light”, Tangled
-“If I Rise”, 127 Hours
-“Shine”, Waiting For Superman
-“You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me”, Burlesque
-“We Belong Together”, Toy Story 3
This is by far the craziest category of the bunch. Runaway frontrunners have been known in past years (Eddie Vedder for Into the Wild and Bruce Springsteen for The Wrestler) to get snubbed of a nomination. So take these predictions and anyone else’s for this category with a grain of salt.
Best Foreign Language Film
-Biutiful
-Confessions
-In a Better World
-Incendies
-Life, Above All
Another crazy category but In a Better World and Incendies appear to be locks.
Best Documentary Feature
-Gasland
-Inside Job
-The Tillman Story
-Waiting For Superman
-Waste Land
It would be great if Restrepo could make it in here but I am not counting on it. Gasland, Inside Job and Waiting For Superman are the locks here.
Best Animated Film
-How To Train Your Dragon
-The Illusionist
-Toy Story 3
I am counting on a surprise nomination for The Illusionist. The other 2 have been locked and loaded for months now.
Best Live-Action Short
-Ana’s Playground
-God of Love
-Na Wewe
-Shoe
-The Six Dollar Fifty Man
These are the only 5 films on the finalist list that have a visible campaign going (meaning websites). So they would be the best guesses.
Best Animated Short
-Coyote Falls
-Day & Night
-The Gruffalo
-The Lost Things
-The Silence Beneath the Bark
Coyote Falls and Day & Night have gotten the most publicity and seem like good bets. However, the rest of the category is anyone’s guess.
Best Documentary Short
-Killing in the Name
-Living for 32
-One Thousand Pictures: RFK’s Last Journey
-Poster Girl
-Sun Come Up
Your guess is as good as mine but Living For 32, Poster Girl and Sun Come Up should make it in based on its content (the Virginia Tech shooting, women in the military and climate change respectively).
Best Film Editing
-Black Swan
-The Fighter
-King’s Speech
-Inception
-The Social Network
The Fighter, Inception and The Social Network are locks with Black Swan not far behind. You would also have to assume that The King’s Speech will get a nomination here if it is to have any chance at winning Best Picture. 127 Hours, True Grit or Shutter Island could always surprise.
Best Cinematography
-Black Swan
-Inception
-The King’s Speech
-The Social Network
-True Grit
Black Swan, Inception and True Grit are locks here. I think the two Best Picture frontrunners will fill out the last 2 slots but 127 Hours or Shutter Island could score here.
Best Art Direction
-Alice in Wonderland
-Inception
-The King’s Speech
-Shutter Island
-True Grit
Inception, The King’s Speech and True Grit are the locks. The other 2 look like the period or fantasy based films that are commercials hits that normally score here. However, watch out for Black Swan.
Best Costume Design
-Alice in Wonderland
-Burlesque
-The Fighter
-The King’s Speech
-True Grit
Alice in Wonderland and The King’s Speech are locks. True Grit isn’t far behind. The last 2 slots are up for grabs as Black Swan, Made in Dagenham, Robin Hood or the Tempest could make the field.
Best Makeup
-Alice in Wonderland
-The Fighter
-The Wolfman
The top 2 are locks and you would think the last spot would got to a Best Picture nominee (only The Fighter and True Grit made the short list).
Best Visual Effects
-Alice in Wonderland
-Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1
-Inception
-TRON: Legacy
-Scott Pilgrim Vs. the World
-Scott Pilgrim Vs. the World
I doubt the other 2 finalists (Hereafter and Scott Pilgrim Vs. the World) can break in. Update: Rumor is that Scott Pilgrim Vs. the World's presentation for visual effects went very well so I am now expecting it to get nominated instead of Iron Man 2.
Best Sound Mixing
-127 Hours
-Black Swan
-Inception
-The Social Network
-True Grit
Inception is the only lock. The other 4 scored big in this category on the precursor circuit but there is always the chance Shutter Island and (especially) TRON: Legacy sneak in here.
Best Sound Editing
-Black Swan
-Inception
-Iron Man 2
-The Social Network
-TRON: Legacy
Inception is once again the only lock. The type of film that normally gets nominated here is a blockbuster so expect a few of those with a best picture frontrunner (The Social Network?) thrown into the mix.
Hypothetical Nomination Leaders
11-The King’s Speech
10-Inception, The Social Network
9-Black Swan
8-The Fighter, True Grit
6-127 Hours
5-Alice in Wonderland, The Kids Are All Right
3-Toy Story 3, Winter’s Bone
2-Burlesque, TRON: Legacy, Waiting For Superman
The nominations will be announced at 8:30am EST tomorrow. They will be live streamed on CNN.com and CNN and the other morning shows normally cover them. (E also normally has a 15 minute show covering them but I still have to confirm if they are doing that again this year). Update: E! will be providing coverage beginning at 8:38am EST
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